Korea's base rate spent five months below inflation
Consumer prices, the Bank of Korea base rate and quarterly GDP growth, read straight from the central bank's own database. No forecasts, no view on what the Bank should do next.
The finding
From Apr 2026 to Aug 2026 — 5 straight months — inflation ran above the base rate. The gap was widest in Jun 2026 at -0.66%.
It turned positive only in Sep 2026, and only just: +0.12% (base rate 3.00% against inflation 2.88%).
A rate that is above zero and a rate that is above inflation are different things. Headlines count the first; this table counts the second.
Inflation against the base rate, month by month
Inflation is the consumer price index against the same month a year earlier. The base rate is a daily series, so each row takes that month's last published value — a policy rate is a step, not an average. 36 earlier months are left out because one of the two readings was missing. They are not counted as zero.
| Month | CPI inflation | Base rate | Real rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2025 | 2.38% | 2.50% | +0.12% |
| Nov 2025 | 2.45% | 2.50% | +0.05% |
| Dec 2025 | 2.31% | 2.50% | +0.19% |
| Jan 2026 | 2.01% | 2.50% | +0.49% |
| Feb 2026 | 2.00% | 2.50% | +0.50% |
| Mar 2026 | 2.16% | 2.50% | +0.34% |
| Apr 2026 | 2.57% | 2.50% | -0.07% |
| May 2026 | 3.14% | 2.50% | -0.64% |
| Jun 2026 | 3.16% | 2.50% | -0.66% |
| Jul 2026 | 2.79% | 2.75% | -0.04% |
| Aug 2026 | 3.09% | 3.00% | -0.09% |
| Sep 2026 | 2.88% | 3.00% | +0.12% |
"Real rate" here is the plain subtraction — base rate minus inflation. That is an approximation of the Fisher relation, not its exact form, and it uses realised inflation rather than expected inflation. We print it this way because both inputs are published figures and you can check the arithmetic.
When the base rate actually moved
Only the days the rate changed. Between these dates it sat still.
| Effective | Base rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2024 | 3.50% | — |
| 11 Oct 2024 | 3.25% | -0.25pp |
| 28 Nov 2024 | 3.00% | -0.25pp |
| 25 Feb 2025 | 2.75% | -0.25pp |
| 29 May 2025 | 2.50% | -0.25pp |
| 16 Jul 2026 | 2.75% | +0.25pp |
| 27 Aug 2026 | 3.00% | +0.25pp |
Real GDP growth, quarter on quarter
Seasonally adjusted, against the previous quarter — not against a year earlier. A quarter-on-quarter series turns negative more often than a year-on-year one.
| Quarter | Growth |
|---|---|
| 2024Q3 | +0.10% |
| 2024Q4 | +0.20% |
| 2025Q1 | -0.20% |
| 2025Q2 | +0.60% |
| 2025Q3 | +1.40% |
| 2025Q4 | -0.10% |
| 2026Q1 | +1.80% |
| 2026Q2 | +0.60% |
Across the 26 quarters we hold, 6 were negative (2020Q1, 2020Q2, 2022Q4, 2024Q2, 2025Q1, 2025Q4).
Where these numbers come from
| Series | ECOS table | Compiled by |
|---|---|---|
| Real GDP growth, quarter on quarter (seasonally adjusted) | 200Y102 | Bank of Korea — National Accounts |
| Consumer price index (2020 = 100) | 901Y009 | Statistics Korea, published through Bank of Korea ECOS |
| Bank of Korea base rate | 722Y001 | Bank of Korea |
The consumer price index is compiled by Statistics Korea and distributed through the Bank of Korea's ECOS database. The other two are the Bank's own. We name the compiling agency rather than just the database, because they are not the same thing.
Nothing here is a forecast or a recommendation. We publish what was released, with the table number so it can be checked at source.